Map the Semi-Final Picture — France Through, Who Joins Them?

Updated July 2026
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The bracket is down to the business end. France have booked the first semi-final spot, and three quarter-finals over this weekend decide the other three names. If you are planning outright bets or just want to know who your team can meet next, this is the map — the confirmed fixtures, the NZST dates, the live outright prices and the clearest paths to the 19 July final. Use it as your knockout cheat-sheet.

A World Cup semi-final bracket graphic on a large stadium screen
France are in; three weekend quarter-finals fill the rest of the last four.
  • Confirmed: France are in Semi-final 1 (14 Jul, Dallas), meeting the winner of Spain–Belgium.
  • SF2: Winner of Norway–England vs winner of Argentina–Switzerland (15 Jul, Atlanta).
  • Favourite: France 2.46, then Spain 5.78, Argentina 5.43, England 6.41 (Kalshi via Covers, 2026-07-09 18:31 ET).
  • The read: France’s side of the draw looks the tougher (Spain lurking); the SF2 half is more open, with England and Argentina the seeds.

Step 1 — See the Confirmed Semi-Final Feed

The last four is half-drawn. Here is how it feeds, with NZST dates for Kiwi diaries:

Semi-final Fixture Date (ET) NZST Venue
SF1 France vs Winner (Spain/Belgium) Tue 14 Jul, 15:00 Wed 15 Jul, 07:00 AT&T Stadium, Dallas
SF2 Winner (Norway/England) vs Winner (Argentina/Switzerland) Wed 15 Jul, 15:00 Thu 16 Jul, 07:00 Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta

France are the only confirmed name. Everything else rests on the three remaining quarter-finals.

Step 2 — Track the Quarter-Finals Still to Come

Quarter-final Fixture NZST 1X2 (decimal)
QF2 Spain vs Belgium Sat 11 Jul, 07:00 1.61 / 3.95 / 5.50
QF3 Norway vs England Sun 12 Jul, 09:00 3.80 / 3.50 / 1.94
QF4 Argentina vs Switzerland Sun 12 Jul, 13:00 1.80 / 3.50 / 6.00

(QF2 DraftKings via SI; QF3 bet365 via Squawka; QF4 via Squawka/CentralJersey — all as of 2026-07-10 ~09:00 ET.) QF1 is done: France beat Morocco 2–0 to advance.

Step 3 — Read the Outright Board

France’s semi-final berth reshaped the market. They are now the clear favourite; everyone else is priced to catch up.

Outright winner (decimal, Kalshi via Covers, as of 2026-07-09 18:31 ET):

Selection Odds (decimal) Status
France 2.46 (range 2.35–2.80) Through to SF1
Spain 5.78 (range 4.70–5.78) QF2
Argentina 5.43 (range 4.90–5.43) QF4
England 6.41 (range 5.60–6.41) QF3
Norway 15.89 QF3
Belgium 47.62 (range 31.0–47.62) QF2
Switzerland 52.63 (range 31.0–52.63) QF4

Worth flagging: the books and the exchange disagree on who’s second. US bookmakers (FanDuel, ESPN) have Spain as the clearer second favourite; on the Kalshi exchange it’s Argentina who edges ahead of Spain. Either way, England sit just a step behind both.

Step 4 — Trace the Paths to the Final

  • France’s path (SF1): already through, they wait for Spain or Belgium. If Spain come through, France face the tournament’s meanest defence — arguably the hardest possible semi. If Belgium sneak it, France’s route eases considerably.
  • The SF2 half: wide open. England (6.41) and Argentina (5.43) are the seeds, but Norway (15.89) have already dumped out Brazil and Switzerland (52.63) knocked out Colombia. This is the side of the draw where a surprise finalist could emerge.
Value angle: with France short at 2.46, the outright value now lives in the SF2 half. If you fancy an underdog run, Norway at 15.89 have the form and the Golden Boot leader in Haaland — the longest live price with genuine momentum.

Step 5 — Plan Your Outright Position

The neat play is to wait: three quarter-finals across the weekend will reshuffle this board completely by Sunday night NZST. If you want a position now, France remain the side to beat but offer little value at 2.46. The contrarian angle is a small outright on a live longshot in the open SF2 half before the quarter-finals shorten them.

  • [ ] Note the two SF dates: 07:00 NZST Wed 15 Jul (SF1) and Thu 16 Jul (SF2)
  • [ ] Decide whether to bet outright now or wait for the QF results
  • [ ] Compare France’s outright price across two books — it moved fast post-QF1
  • [ ] Confirm live decimal odds in NZD before staking any outright

Back Your Outright with LamaBet

Bookmaker for the outright market — LamaBet. LamaBet carries the full tournament-winner and to-reach-the-final markets in NZD with decimal odds. Map your path, pick your side of the draw, and lock your outright before the weekend quarter-finals reshape the board.

Read Next

Which teams are in the World Cup semi-finals?
France are confirmed in Semi-final 1 after beating Morocco 2–0. The other three places are decided by this weekend’s quarter-finals: Spain v Belgium, Norway v England and Argentina v Switzerland.
When are the World Cup 2026 semi-finals in NZST?
Semi-final 1 (France v winner of Spain/Belgium) is on 14 July in Dallas — 07:00 NZST Wednesday 15 July. Semi-final 2 is on 15 July in Atlanta — 07:00 NZST Thursday 16 July.
Who is favourite to win the World Cup now?
France are the clear favourite at 2.46 decimal after reaching the semis, ahead of Spain (5.78), Argentina (5.43) and England (6.41). Books disagree on whether Spain or Argentina is the second favourite (Kalshi via Covers, 2026-07-09).