Predict Spain vs Belgium — Quarter-Final Odds, Team News & Our Pick

The second quarter-final is the tie of the round: Spain, who have not conceded a single goal all tournament, against Belgium, who keep leaving it late and winning anyway. It kicks off at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles at 15:00 ET today — that is 07:00 NZST Saturday 11 July, a genuine breakfast fixture for Kiwi punters. The winner meets France in the semi-finals. Here is how the market prices it, the team news that matters, and where we see the value.

Step 1 — Check the Odds

Decimal 1X2 (DraftKings via SI, line as of ~9 Jul evening, 2026-07-10 ~09:00 ET):

Cross-book, Spain ran as short as 1.625 and Belgium out to 5.70 at Covers — book-to-book noise rather than a clean move, since the quarter-final lines are near-opening. Spain are heavy favourites and rightly so, but 1.61 is a skinny price on a side whose knockout wins have all been by a single goal.

Step 2 — Weigh Spain’s Historic Defence

This is the number that defines the tie. Spain have not conceded a single goal at this World Cup — five clean sheets in five games, nine scored. That makes them the first team in history with six consecutive World Cup clean sheets, and goalkeeper Unai Simón has passed Walter Zenga’s 1990 record for World Cup minutes unbeaten (past 517).

But note the shape of their wins: 1–0 over Portugal in the Round of 16 (Merino, 91′), 3–0 Austria, 1–0 Uruguay, then a 0–0 with Cape Verde. Four straight wins, but the knockout football has been tight, low-scoring and late. That is the profile of a team you back to advance, not one you back to win big.

Step 3 — Read Belgium’s Comeback Case

Belgium are the tournament’s comeback kings — 3–2 over Senegal in R32 from two goals down (extra time), then 4–1 past the USA with a De Ketelaere brace. Rudi Garcia’s side score goals. The problem is at the other end: they have conceded in both knockout games, and losing Amadou Onana to an ACL injury (off in the 21st minute vs USA) has weakened the midfield exactly where Spain’s Rodri and Pedri do their damage.

Kevin De Bruyne is fit and tipped for a central recall. If Belgium are to spring the upset, it runs through him finding the runners early — because chasing this Spain side late is a tall order when they have not been behind all tournament.

Step 4 — Confirm the Team News

• Spain: Yeremy Pino is available (the early collarbone fear was confirmed as a lesser AC-joint sprain). Nico Williams is a doubt (adductor) — leaning available but unlikely to start. Predicted XI: Simón; Porro, Cubarsí, Laporte, Cucurella; Rodri, Pedri; Yamal, Olmo, Baena; Oyarzabal (Sports Mole / RotoWire).
• Belgium: Onana out (ACL, tournament over); Zeno Debast a doubt (late fitness test). De Bruyne fit. Predicted XI: Courtois; Castagne, Ngoy, Mechele, De Cuyper; Vanaken, Tielemans; Lukebakio, De Bruyne, Trossard; De Ketelaere (Sports Mole / RotoWire).

Step 5 — Find the Value

At 1.61, backing Spain straight is defensible but low-reward. The sharper read leans on the pattern: Spain win, but they win narrowly. Their knockout scorelines (1–0, 1–0) and Belgium’s compromised midfield point to a low-scoring, cagey game rather than a Belgian shoot-out. If your book offers it, a Spain-to-win-to-nil or an under-goals line captures the clean-sheet run at a better price than the outright 1.61.

The draw at 3.95 is the fallback for the upset-minded: with Spain’s knockout ties all tight, low-scoring 1–0s and Belgium happy to sit in and counter, a level game after 90 that pushes into extra time is far from far-fetched.

Step 6 — Lock Your Pick

Our verdict: Spain to advance, with the value in the low-scoring markets rather than the 1.61 outright. Belgium have the character to make it uncomfortable, but Spain’s defensive record is the single most reliable trend left in the tournament.

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Read Next

• The full quarter-final weekend: Preview the Sunday Quarter-Final Double-Header
• How the last four is shaping up: Map the Semi-Final Picture
• Belgium’s tournament profile, our NZ group rival: Scout Belgium in Group G