Map the Semi-Final Picture — France Through, Who Joins Them?
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The bracket is down to the business end. France have booked the first semi-final spot, and three quarter-finals over this weekend decide the other three names. If you are planning outright bets or just want to know who your team can meet next, this is the map — the confirmed fixtures, the NZST dates, the live outright prices and the clearest paths to the 19 July final. Use it as your knockout cheat-sheet.

- Confirmed: France are in Semi-final 1 (14 Jul, Dallas), meeting the winner of Spain–Belgium.
- SF2: Winner of Norway–England vs winner of Argentina–Switzerland (15 Jul, Atlanta).
- Favourite: France 2.46, then Spain 5.78, Argentina 5.43, England 6.41 (Kalshi via Covers, 2026-07-09 18:31 ET).
- The read: France’s side of the draw looks the tougher (Spain lurking); the SF2 half is more open, with England and Argentina the seeds.
Step 1 — See the Confirmed Semi-Final Feed
The last four is half-drawn. Here is how it feeds, with NZST dates for Kiwi diaries:
| Semi-final | Fixture | Date (ET) | NZST | Venue |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SF1 | France vs Winner (Spain/Belgium) | Tue 14 Jul, 15:00 | Wed 15 Jul, 07:00 | AT&T Stadium, Dallas |
| SF2 | Winner (Norway/England) vs Winner (Argentina/Switzerland) | Wed 15 Jul, 15:00 | Thu 16 Jul, 07:00 | Mercedes-Benz Stadium, Atlanta |
France are the only confirmed name. Everything else rests on the three remaining quarter-finals.
Step 2 — Track the Quarter-Finals Still to Come
| Quarter-final | Fixture | NZST | 1X2 (decimal) |
|---|---|---|---|
| QF2 | Spain vs Belgium | Sat 11 Jul, 07:00 | 1.61 / 3.95 / 5.50 |
| QF3 | Norway vs England | Sun 12 Jul, 09:00 | 3.80 / 3.50 / 1.94 |
| QF4 | Argentina vs Switzerland | Sun 12 Jul, 13:00 | 1.80 / 3.50 / 6.00 |
(QF2 DraftKings via SI; QF3 bet365 via Squawka; QF4 via Squawka/CentralJersey — all as of 2026-07-10 ~09:00 ET.) QF1 is done: France beat Morocco 2–0 to advance.
Step 3 — Read the Outright Board
France’s semi-final berth reshaped the market. They are now the clear favourite; everyone else is priced to catch up.
Outright winner (decimal, Kalshi via Covers, as of 2026-07-09 18:31 ET):
| Selection | Odds (decimal) | Status |
|---|---|---|
| France | 2.46 (range 2.35–2.80) | Through to SF1 |
| Spain | 5.78 (range 4.70–5.78) | QF2 |
| Argentina | 5.43 (range 4.90–5.43) | QF4 |
| England | 6.41 (range 5.60–6.41) | QF3 |
| Norway | 15.89 | QF3 |
| Belgium | 47.62 (range 31.0–47.62) | QF2 |
| Switzerland | 52.63 (range 31.0–52.63) | QF4 |
Worth flagging: the books and the exchange disagree on who’s second. US bookmakers (FanDuel, ESPN) have Spain as the clearer second favourite; on the Kalshi exchange it’s Argentina who edges ahead of Spain. Either way, England sit just a step behind both.
Step 4 — Trace the Paths to the Final
- France’s path (SF1): already through, they wait for Spain or Belgium. If Spain come through, France face the tournament’s meanest defence — arguably the hardest possible semi. If Belgium sneak it, France’s route eases considerably.
- The SF2 half: wide open. England (6.41) and Argentina (5.43) are the seeds, but Norway (15.89) have already dumped out Brazil and Switzerland (52.63) knocked out Colombia. This is the side of the draw where a surprise finalist could emerge.
Step 5 — Plan Your Outright Position
The neat play is to wait: three quarter-finals across the weekend will reshuffle this board completely by Sunday night NZST. If you want a position now, France remain the side to beat but offer little value at 2.46. The contrarian angle is a small outright on a live longshot in the open SF2 half before the quarter-finals shorten them.
- [ ] Note the two SF dates: 07:00 NZST Wed 15 Jul (SF1) and Thu 16 Jul (SF2)
- [ ] Decide whether to bet outright now or wait for the QF results
- [ ] Compare France’s outright price across two books — it moved fast post-QF1
- [ ] Confirm live decimal odds in NZD before staking any outright
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Read Next
- Today’s quarter-final in full: Predict Spain vs Belgium
- The Sunday double-header: Preview the Quarter-Final Double
- The full winner market: Find Best World Cup Odds