Recap: France 2–0 Morocco — First Team Into the Semis
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France are the first side through to the last four. In the opening quarter-final at Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Les Bleus beat Morocco 2–0 (Thursday 9 July ET; a Friday-morning watch here in NZ) to reach a third consecutive World Cup semi-final. Kylian Mbappé and Ousmane Dembélé got the goals, but the story for punters is bigger than the scoreline: France are now the only team on a perfect 6/6, the only one yet to play extra time, and the freshly shortened outright favourite. Here is the fast recap and what it changes for your bets.

- Result: France 2–0 Morocco. Mbappé 60′, Dembélé 66′. France dominated (21–4 shots, roughly 3.0 vs 0.1 xG per FOX/ESPN).
- What it means: France advance to Semi-final 1 (14 Jul, Dallas) and will meet the winner of today’s Spain–Belgium tie. Morocco are out — Africa’s last team eliminated.
- Market move: France steamed into clear favourites, from about 2.80 out to 2.46 (range 2.35–2.80, Kalshi via Covers, as of 2026-07-09 18:31 ET).
- Golden Boot: Mbappé’s 8th goal pulled him level with Messi on 8 — the books now split on who is favourite.
Step 1 — Replay the 90 Minutes
Morocco, the Qatar-2022 semi-finalists, kept it level to half-time and even survived a scare — Mbappé missed a first-half penalty (CNN/ESPN/NBC). But France turned control into goals after the break. Mbappé struck on 60 minutes for his 20th career World Cup goal, one behind Messi’s all-time record of 21. Dembélé added the second on 66 for his 5th of the tournament, and France saw the game out with the composure that has defined their campaign — all six wins, all inside 90 minutes.
It was a Qatar-2022 semi-final rematch, and France won it again. Deschamps was gracious afterwards about a young Atlas Lions side now coached by Mohamed Ouahbi.
Step 2 — Read the Outright Market Move
France did what favourites are supposed to do, and the market rewarded them. The outright winner price shortened from around 2.80 into 2.46 decimal (range 2.35–2.80) — the lowest France have been priced since the tournament opened.
Outright winner — top of the board (decimal, Kalshi via Covers, as of 2026-07-09 18:31 ET):
| Selection | Odds (decimal) |
|---|---|
| France | 2.46 (range 2.35–2.80) |
| Spain | 5.78 (range 4.70–5.78) |
| Argentina | 5.43 (range 4.90–5.43) |
| England | 6.41 (range 5.60–6.41) |
| Norway | 15.89 |
One split worth knowing before you stake: US bookmakers (FanDuel, ESPN) price Spain ahead of Argentina, while the Kalshi exchange has Argentina ahead of Spain. Either way, France now sit clear at the top and everyone else is chasing.
Step 3 — Track the Golden Boot Twist
Mbappé’s goal did more than settle the tie. It was his 8th of the tournament, pulling him level with Messi on 8 at the top of the scoring chart. The books reacted instantly and now disagree:
- FOX / Covers make Mbappé the favourite (about 1.95, −105).
- FanDuel still had Messi favourite (about 2.20) over Mbappé (about 2.35).
(Golden Boot prices as of 2026-07-09 18:02 ET.) Behind them: Haaland on 7 goals (8.50) and Kane on 6 (10.0). Every top contender is still on a live team, so this market moves with every quarter-final.
Step 4 — Plan Your Next Bet
France’s next assignment is Semi-final 1 in Dallas on 14 July (Wednesday 15 July, 07:00 NZST), against whoever survives Spain–Belgium. If you fancied France pre-tournament, the value has thinned — but they remain the side to beat. The sharper angles now are the three quarter-finals still to be played, where the 1X2 lines are fresher.
- [ ] Compare the France outright price across at least two books — it has moved fast
- [ ] Decide if you want France now or wait for the SF1 opponent to be confirmed
- [ ] Check the Golden Boot market for the Mbappé/Messi split before backing either
- [ ] Confirm live decimal prices in NZD at your bookmaker before staking
Back the Semi-Final Chase with Boomerang Bet
Read Next
- The full winner market and where value sits now: Find Best World Cup Odds
- France’s squad and tournament profile: Back France at World Cup 2026
- Who wins it all — our outright read: Pick World Cup Winners